Inherent Flaws of Obama-Care

published by Joe Jarvis on Wed, 01/12/2011 - 09:04

New York Times columnist David Brooks has published an op-ed piece about the inherent flaws of Obama-care and the implied need to look beyond the new law towards something that actually would be sustainable (find the column here). Excerpts:

The health care reform law was signed 10 months ago, and what’s striking now is how vulnerable it looks. Several threats have emerged — some of them scarcely discussed before passage — that together or alone could seriously endanger the new system. These include:

The courts. So far, one judge has struck down the individual mandate, the plan’s centerpiece.


False projections. The new system is based on a series of expert projections on how people will behave. In the first test case, these projections were absurdly off base. According to the Medicare actuary, 375,000 people should have already signed up for the new high-risk pools for the uninsured, but only 8,000 have.

Employee dumping. This is the most serious threat. Companies and unions across America are running the numbers and discovering they would be better off if, after 2014, they induced poorer and sicker employees to move to public insurance exchanges, where subsidies are much higher.

The number of people in those exchanges could thus skyrocket, especially as startup companies undermine their competitors with uninsured employees and lower costs. The Congressional Budget Office projects that 19 million people will move to the exchanges at a cost of $450 billion between 2014 and 2019. But according to the economists Douglas Holtz-Eakin and James C. Capretta, costs could soar to $1.4 trillion if those who would be better off in the exchanges actually moved to them. The price of the health care law could double.

Over all, there is a strong likelihood that the current health care law will face an existential threat over the next five years. Each party should be preparing contingency plans.

After the trauma of the last two years, many people wish the issue would go away. But it’s not going away, especially since costs will continue to rise.

My comment:

Obama-care will not be fully implemented because it can't be. It is inherently designed to fail. It remains an unpopular law mostly because it fails to address health care costs. At a gut level, Americans know that we can not continue to outspend the rest of the developed world 2:1 while getting less value from our health care system.

Therefore, Mr. Brooks is correct. Each of us should already be thinking ahead and developing a plan for what to do next about health system reform. The Utah Healthcare Initiative proposes that states be granted the lead for this next round of health policy while the federal government finds a method for making a defined funding contribution to any state with a comprehensive health system reform solution.

The comprehensive health system reform solution proposed by the Utah Healthcare Initiative is outlined on our website (see link below). Join us.

Yours,

Dr. Joe Jarvis